Creating favorite opinions

  Conditions for recommendation to invest to Gold I thought and thought about the conditions for recommendation to invest Gold. There are 2 conditions(below Condition A and B) about it. (Condition A) Economic dependency’s scale is shrinking.(For example, Japan as aging society.) (Condition B) The economic dependency is non-replaceable.(For example, Japan is non-replaceable for the people who can’t escape from Japan.) Above Condition A means that countries whose economic growths are minus rates, is met. It shows they are in minus-sum game in Game Theory. Above Condition B means that people who can’t escape from those countries are met. There are some reasons for Condition A and B. In condition A, all people in the economic dependency will lose because of shrinking. Gold has value which increase/decrease prices as same as world inflation rates. In condition B, Gold is difficult to take to abroad, so that Gold is to recomend for people who can’t escape from the coun...

  Nvidia I read this news. Nvidia insiders sold over $1 billion in stock amid market surge, FT reports https://www.reuters.com/business/nvidia-insiders-sold-over-1-billion-stock-amid-market-surge-ft-reports-2025-06-29/ If insiders sell own stocks, it may be bad news for buy sides. I know GPU is essential for Artificial Intelligence, but there may be hidden risks to invest to GPU providers. I don’t know what the risks are. Perhaps, “Nvidia shock” may come in near future. I don’t know how to avoid “Nvidia shock”, but only Nvidia stock price to fall will be possible if Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon, and  Apple will develop own GPU or another USA GPU company will appear.

  Tokyo Tower I took some pictures in Tokyo.

 After  Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly Election I am interested in Mr.Ishimaru Shinji(石丸 伸二) and his party “Path of Rebirth”(再生の道). His party seemed to be denied by older voters. I thought it was true, but there may be another side for it. Young person will support he and his party by  his SNS tactics effects. Mr.Ishimaru is good at SNS tactics and it will eventually have a real effect. I think that Mr.Ishimaru and his party will bigger powers after 1 or 2 times of major national elections. In addition, young persons know they don’t have enough voters, but they seem to join major politics. So they will support Mr.Ishimaru and his party to send their opinions. Further, older politicians(自民党) won’t use SNS as good as Mr.Ishimaru’s party does. Repeatedly, it will takes 1 or 2 times of major national elections for Mr.Ishimaru. Additional point Being good at SNSs tactics(preferbly having Owned media) is the essential skill for current politicians.

  After inflation I thought about the economy after this inflation ends. This inflation seems to stay forever, but absolutely NO. I think it ends at 2027-2028. After it ends, resource nations, for example Russia, will face bad economy. I think that Gold is not to invest for short term view.

  Good:Nippon steel;Promotion from Pawn to Queen I saw this news. https://sp.m.jiji.com/english/show/40287 Good! Nippon steel promoted from Pawn to Queen in US market. Promotion is very difficult in Chess game. USA won't separate Japan from own economy. This news may show the feature for USA and Japan.

  Win to lose or Lose to win I searched some data about Japan stock markets. I have thought that individual investors give their money and pro investors take them. It may be wrong. I found that every investors cannot avoid to lose their money, but pro investors may be good at limit their losses. To limit losses may result to lose to win.

  Cafe au lait: Can we separate it for Milk and Coffee? Cafe au lait(Milk Coffee), I think that we can’t separate it for Milk and Coffee. Further, I prefer Cafe au lait more than Milk or Black Coffee. I imagine about how Milk feels when Milk is mixed with Coffee. (In this article, Cafe au lait = Milk 50% : Coffee 50%.) Milk may think Milk itself is swallowed by something different things. How about Coffee? I imagine about how Coffee feels when Milk is mixed. Coffee may think Coffee itself is swallowed by something different things. Now if we want to enjoy good taste Cafe au lait, we need syrup. Syrup must be not so much amount, because when too much, Cafe au lait loses its good taste. Further more, when we are in hot weather, we need ice for Cafe au lait. This Cafe au lait is one example for the world. If someone try to separate Cafe au lait for Milk and Coffee, it will be wasteful, and the effort will be no use crying over split milk. Then syrup will be economica...

  Typhoon person I saw the Mexico and Canada stock prices went down from May 9, 2025. If this fall is not the whim of the market, this is signal for Trade war. In my experience, typhoon person is there. Typhoon person tends to have an ally nearby, attack people who keep their distance, and if enough far, there are no damage. Mexico and Canada will be damaged stronger than other far countries. 

 Correlation between features and USD/Japanese Yen(JPY) I wrote Python code for searching about correlation between features and USD/JPY. Combined_Price = (Gold × 1 + Oil × 2.5) × DGS10 DGS10 means 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate. Correlation was 0.93975.

  How to know the decisions as mistakes by one's self? How people, including me, know the decisions as mistakes by ourselves is to feel the pains from results from the mistakes. No pain, no gain. Actions/Results Successes Mistakes Decisions Increase risks Balance If decisions result as successes, people learn less than mistakes. Big and many successes will lead next bigger and more mistakes. In my experience, to fix mistakes as soon as possible results better than late. The bad actions are that to repeat and continue decisions which will be mistakes. If I find my mistakes, I will be careful for to repeat same mistakes and not to continue them. (But I sometimes do gamble, it may be my bad habit.)

 correlation-features-USA(corr=0.9645) df["Combined_Price"] = (     df["Gold"] * 10                              # 安全資産、価値保存     + (df["Copper"] - df["Zinc"]) * 0.75         # 工業金属の需給差（精錬コスト的な差？）     - (df["Wheat"] + df["Corn"]) * 2.5           # 食料インフレ圧力（消費者・企業のコスト増）     + (df["Oil"] - df["Uranium"]) * 30           # 化石燃料 vs 原子力（エネルギーのパラダイム） ) I found correlation(corr=0.9645) between combined features and DJI. This is from FRED data, so that some delays are included. https://medium.com/@takapoko182/a-personal-attempt-to-reconstruct-djia-using-commodity-prices-2015-2025-638e4375919c

  The Chinification of America vs the Americanization of China Hummm… https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-deflects-blame-economy-contraction-says-be-patient-2025-04-30/ I thought about the Chinification of America vs the Americanization of China. Simply, the Americanization of China seems to be more exciting. Further, I thought about double-sided transaction. If America market is bear trend, China market will be bull trend, so that there may be chances in both markets. (I don’t have enough money to do it, and I am not good at trading.) [Additional news] Military parade on Trump's birthday could include more than 6,500 troops https://www.reuters.com/world/us/military-parade-trumps-birthday-could-include-more-than-6500-troops-2025-05-02/ [Further Additional] I searched with Python code. I may be wrong about the markets. Correlation between China market and USA market becomes stronger than I expected.