Creating favorite opinions

Conditions for Recommendation to Invest to Gold(2nd)                          “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” — J.P.Morgan WHY TO INVEST TO GOLD? Gold sometimes is said to have no yields and not to invest to. There are a lot of investment targets, for example, stocks, bonds, Cryptocurrencies and so on. It sounds we don’t need to select gold as investment target. I thought and thought about conditions for recommendation to invest to Gold. There are 2 conditions for the recommendation. Perhaps, there are more than 2 conditions, but I found at least 2 conditions(Conditions A and B). Shrinking of Life Country’s Economy(Condition A) IS LIFE COUNTRY’S ECONOMY GROWING BIGGER? If so, it is good, and there may be no need to invest to Gold. However, if it is shrinking, there is some need to invest to Gold. If life country’s economy shrinks, all people in the country, including rich class, middl...

  Conditions for recommendation to invest to Gold I thought and thought about the conditions for recommendation to invest Gold. There are 2 conditions(below Condition A and B) about it. (Condition A) Economic dependency’s scale is shrinking.(For example, Japan as aging society.) (Condition B) The economic dependency is non-replaceable.(For example, Japan is non-replaceable for the people who can’t escape from Japan.) Above Condition A means that countries whose economic growths are minus rates, is met. It shows they are in minus-sum game in Game Theory. Above Condition B means that people who can’t escape from those countries are met. There are some reasons for Condition A and B. In condition A, all people in the economic dependency will lose because of shrinking. Gold has value which increase/decrease prices as same as world inflation rates. In condition B, Gold is difficult to take to abroad, so that Gold is to recomend for people who can’t escape from the coun...

  Nvidia I read this news. Nvidia insiders sold over $1 billion in stock amid market surge, FT reports https://www.reuters.com/business/nvidia-insiders-sold-over-1-billion-stock-amid-market-surge-ft-reports-2025-06-29/ If insiders sell own stocks, it may be bad news for buy sides. I know GPU is essential for Artificial Intelligence, but there may be hidden risks to invest to GPU providers. I don’t know what the risks are. Perhaps, “Nvidia shock” may come in near future. I don’t know how to avoid “Nvidia shock”, but only Nvidia stock price to fall will be possible if Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon, and  Apple will develop own GPU or another USA GPU company will appear.

  Legal Online CASINO: USA share markets Background I was interested in this news. Tradeweb to extend trading hours the day after US election https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/tradeweb-extend-trading-hours-day-after-us-election-2024-10-31/ My thought Share markets has turned to be Legal Online CASINO. USA share markets’ rival will be real/online CASINO. How to invest good companies? Venture capital is the way, not to bet money on share markets. What will happen in share markets? Current share markets are not the field to invest good companies. They are the field to play “Old lady game”. Rich sells shares in high price and poor buy a small amount the shares. After stock markets crash, Rich buy the shares little by little in low price to collect them. This is the system, which is alike to a hamster wheel. One idea I have read the book “Just Keep Buying”. The book only told that Just Keep Buying the shares. I can write Python code and use GCP, so that t...

Simple calculation Simple calculation Background Bank Of Japan(BOJ) has 7% of Tokyo Prime stock market shares. The shares book value is 34 trillion yen. Tokyo stock market falls today Sum of Tokyo Prime stock was 962 trillion yen at July 31, 2024. Index of Tokyo Prime stock was between 1400-1450 at July 31, 2024. Today’s index was 1150. In fact, 962:1425=x:1150. X is 776. At Aug 5, 2024, sum of Tokyo Prime stock was 776 trillion yen. In fact, BOJ has 54 trillion yen of Tokyo Prime stock. What do I want to say? If index of Tokyo Prime stock falls down under 723, then BOJ bankrupts or becomes insolvent. 1150 * 54 / 34 = 723. If index of Tokyo Prime stock falls more 40% than today, Japan economy ends. Caution This simple calculation may include mistakes which I don’t know.

  “Cultures and Investment” Warren Buffet knows the existence of culture difference between USA and Japan. https://www.reuters.com/business/buffett-talks-succession-berkshires-future-annual-meeting-2024-05-04/ We tend to try to know what the difference, but to know the existence is more important. The world has several religions, cultures and languages. Knowing each other is good, but knowing the existence of differences is better. Recently, I started Nikkei Future trading with my secret code. Because I don’t know USA markets, so that I started in Japan market.

  2024/4/8.  Secret Code These days, I wrote some Python codes about searching correlation between Nasdaq and Commodities. The latest score is 0.95189 now(2024/4/8). I don’t open this code because I will use it for my trading assistant program. I hope I can be rich with the program… (Additional things...) I changed my mind, but it is only small... This is the result picture between Predicted model vs Actual Nikkei 225 Close price. 2024/4/17.  Additional result I lost $200(¥30000)... My bad point is too much believing my thought...

 Intersting, but I doubt... Correlation 0.934 is too high! <script src="https://gist.github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/0054bce1cdbdba6ad467451ca5421b1a.js"></script>

Nasdaq,,, done Correlation result is 0.8305...   I'll write test code... Nasdaq = Cacao * (Copper + Silver + Gold) - Sugar * Coffee main.py <script src="https://gist.github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/6efaa2dd834a1ff9aea3138a50fc9b15.js"></script> validation.py <script src="https://gist.github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/8e309e65b0aae4213464fffafb78bd30.js"></script>

 Nikkei225 vs Cacao, Copper & Sugar Correlation is 0.687. It is great, I did great work! <script src="https://gist.github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/34bfe423b3c73f2b17df0f68243b4caa.js"></script>

 Nasdaq corr. 0.6597

 Nasdaq Correlation with Cacao, Copper and Sugar Nasdaq = (Cacao * 0.586) * (Copper ^ 2.528) - (Sugar ^ 3.965) Correlation score is 0.64978. <script src="https://gist.github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/6eb89fb0dc310df733ddab2491a55e72.js"></script>

 I admit ChatGPT as great. New Python code with ChatGPT4's help, shows correlation 0.636. I got this result in short time... ChatGPT and Machine Learning are great... Nasdaq = Cacao^1.15 + Copper^6.4 - Suger^2.698 I could not find it... <script src="https://gist.github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/6aa4e3d9343163f01d7bcb845edc9297.js"></script>

I applied to Nasdaq in below Python code. The result correlation is 0.5329... Not so bad... Before each prices were powered, it is important that Normaraization. 2024/4/3. Additional result is 0.5466. It is better. 2024/4/3. Furthermore Additional result is 0.5505. Hummm. Good. 2024/4/2. Python code 2024/4/3. Python code 2024/4/3. Python code 2nd

  (cacao_close ** 0.31) + (copper_close ** 0.46) - (suger_close ** 0.37) This shows highest correlation with Nikkei 225. The value is 0.631. I did great work! I uploaded whole code in below github. https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/VSNikkei

  2024/3/28.  Article 9 Article 9 of the Japan Constitution has been unchanged for over 70 years from WW2. Article 9 is written about abandonment of army. Regardless of the intentions of the U.S. government at that time, Japan people have keep on protecting Article 9. Liberal Democratic Party in Japan(Jimin party) have keep on staying at the center of Japan politics over 70 years from WW2. In other words, Jimin party have protected Article 9. In view of it, Jimin party won’t change Article 9. There may be national election in near future, but it doesn’t matter whether Jimin party wins or not about changing Article 9. If Jimin party wins, Article 9 won’t be changed. If Jimin party loses, next ruling party can’t change Article 9 because of weakness of political foundation. Weakness of political foundation is due to its voter support base and the presence of some organizations. New ruling party won’t have large support from its voters, so that national referendum fo...

  2024/3/15.  Nissan and Honda I saw this news. Rivas Nissan and Honda sign MoU on EV partnership https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/honda-nissan-sign-mou-comprehensive-ev-cooperation-nhk-reports-2024-03-15/ This partnership looks alliance of the weak companies. In addition, I felt that Japan gov assisted for the partnership. I have thought to buy Nissan shares, but I stopped because I felt Nissan was not good to invest. Japan gov seems to prefer market oligopoly by 2 companies. For example, airlines for JAL and ANA, telecommunication for NTT and KDDI(Softbank is outsider). In view of the tendency, Japanese car companies will converge to TOYOTA and Nissan&Honda. 

  2024/3/5.   Who will pull Joker card? I watched the news that USA stock markets hit new high, and then Japan stock markets hit new high, too. I imagined who will pull Joker card in old lady. Japanese new investors(?) will be the last buyers in USA and Japan stock markets. They prefer to buy USA and Japan stocks in NISA. NISA:Nippon individual savings account https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nippon_individual_savings_account They will keep to buy USA stocks until USA stocks market crash. The crash will happen around 2 or 3 months before/after Fed rate cut. After crash, some of them will do loss cut USA stocks, then will buy Japan stocks. Japan stocks market will crash at that time.

  2023/12/31.  Stock investment or Company investment I read some books about probability. I thought that the great investor, Warren Buffett might have invested to good companies, not to companies whose stock prices were likely to rise. This may be the principle. Investment to Good company Bad Company High stock price Normal or Not bad Bad Low stock price Good Normal or Not good There are several ways to find and measure which good or bad company is. The important point is to find good company, not company whose stock price is likely to rise.