Some Risks of China’s Dual-Use Export Ban China’s recent decision to impose a dual-use export ban targeting Japan is often discussed in terms of supply chains, technology controls, and security risks. However, beyond the immediate economic impact, this policy carries a less obvious but potentially more strategic risk : its indirect effects on Taiwan–Japan relations. This article explores three structural risks embedded in the design of the ban. 1. Taiwan-to-Japan exports may fall into a gray zone Although the export ban is formally directed only at Japan , its scope becomes ambiguous when Taiwan is involved. From China’s official perspective, Taiwan is not treated as a fully separate political entity. As a result, dual-use goods manufactured or exported from Taiwan—such as electronic components, semiconductor-related hardware, or even consumer-grade PC parts—can be framed as Chinese-origin technologies routed through Taiwan . This creates a situation where: • Taiwan exporting dual-...

  +AI & Rook In chess, the rook is not the most complex piece. It does not move diagonally, it does not jump, and it does not surprise. Yet in many games, the rook quietly decides the outcome. I believe +AI plays a similar role in today’s world . +AI as a Rook The rook moves in straight lines—horizontally and vertically. Its strength lies not in creativity, but in reach, consistency, and speed . +AI behaves in much the same way. It does not replace human intention or strategy. Instead, it extends them—across space and across time. In practical terms, the effective use of +AI can be summarized into two main forms: • Horizontal expansion • Vertical expansion Horizontal Expansion: Reusing Success Across Markets Horizontal expansion means applying a method that worked in one domain to another domain. In investment terms, this could mean: • Taking a strategy that worked in equities • Testing it in FX, commodities, or other markets With +AI,...

+AI & ROI How +AI Changes the Structure of Demand Discussions around AI often focus on productivity gains or cost reductions. However, a more important and less discussed effect of +AI lies in how it transforms the structure of ROI (Return on Investment) itself. The key insight is simple but powerful: +AI primarily reduces the denominator of ROI — the Investment. This structural shift has consequences far beyond efficiency gains. +AI Shrinks the Investment Side of ROI ROI is defined as: ROI = Return / Investment Most technological progress attempts to increase the Return . +AI, however, does something different: • It dramatically lowers initial costs • It reduces human labor requirements • It eliminates the need for large-scale upfront infrastructure in many domains As a result, projects that previously failed to meet ROI thresholds suddenly become viable. This is not optimization at the margin — it is a redefinition of who can participate . Lower Investment Does Not ...