Creating favorite opinions

  2024/4/18.  Mismatch between China supply capacity and USA inflation I found one large mismatch between China supply capacity and USA inflation. USA inflation may be caused by house construction fee. Buying house is one of the most expensive things in our life. Recently, China real estate market is in trouble. Because there is large house supply capacity. Of course, I know China can’t export their house to USA. But how about building materials? China has large building material supply capacity and USA wants house to be cheaper. There seems to be mismatch between them. I don’t know who will be selected to next USA president. But Mr.Trump is good at real estates trading. So I hope that Mr.Trump or current US president Biden can solve this mismatch.

  2023/9/17.  Japanese listed companies I saw Mr.Warren Buffet has bought Japanese trading companies’ stocks. I thought it was good decision, but there may be misunderstanding between Japanese stocks and World stocks. In Japanese listed companies, the workers including CEOs in the companies, doesn’t think shareholders is more important than them. I made graphes. They think as core-shell structure or insider/outsider. And world stocks is below... So if Mr.Warren Buffet doesn’t know it, it may cause a lot of stress to him and Japan workers.

  2023/6/5.  Copper is more than Gold or Silver in Japan? 2 I researched about the relationship between copper and Nikkei 225. I wrote below codes. https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/Nikkei225vsCopper https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/Nikkei225vsCopper2 Nikkei 225 price seems to have relationship with copper power 3 price. Nikkei 225 = (Copper price ^3) * some times If you like this result, I will be happy. 2023/6/6. Additionally, Copper price has more relationship with Nikkei 225 than Copper price power 3. I was wrong. https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/Nikkei225vsCopper3/Nikkei225vsCopper3 2023/6/10. Additionally, I did cluster analysis to the result. This is interesting. https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/Nikkei225vsCopper4

  2023/5/27.   Copper is more than Gold or Silver in Japan? Recently, I searched about relationship between Nikkei225 and commodities. I found that copper’s price has higher relationship to Nikkei225 than Gold or Silver prices. From 2015-01-01 to 2023-05-26, relationships are  Platinum:0.171 Gold:0.736 Silver:0.745 Copper:0.787. Above is result of my codes. https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/CorrelationBTWGoldAndNikkei Honestly, I worried to open this result and codes. But I don’t have enough money to buy/sell stocks, so it is no need to worry...

  2023/5/8.     The end of $ The end of $ is coming soon. In my mind, $’s power is decreasing faster. In my brain images, ¥(JPY) & $ are losing their colors. I watched about US debt ceiling problem, and think about future. Will the debt be solved soon or 100 years later? Soon is obviously wrong , but 100 years later is absolutely wrong. 100 years later, the debt will be bigger and bigger. For the debt, USA government has to approach principal solutions, but it doesn’t nor won’t. In 20 years ago, there weren’t any alternative to $. But now, there are a lot of digital coins. So I started trading digital coins with Python. There is another problem that I am concerning, the capitalism’s system limit. Capitalism needs regularly economic depression. I imagine that older people could earn $ which would have higher value, but younger can’t. So if younger people want to be rich, there may revolution of money. It happened by Bitcoin. In my opinion, Bitcoin will be digital gold, and Ethereum

 2022/11/15.  NIKKEI225&DJIA&NASDAQ Prediction Code(Python) I wrote some Python Codes. https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/NIKKEI-Price NIKKEI225 prediction Code   DJIA prediction Code NASDAQ Prediction Code

  2022/2/13.  Turkey I read this article, and am thinking about Turkey government’s debt. Fitch downgrades Turkish debt amid soaring inflation https://www.ft.com/content/d6799877-7bae-4f78-b53d-8d1828a41c82 I searched some datas about Turkey’s economy. From google, And this site, https://www.statista.com/statistics/277040/national-debt-in-turkey-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/ Turkey GDP(b$) Currency($)@Jan Debt ratio(%) 2017 859 0.27 28.03 2018 778.4 0.27 30.17 2019 761.4 0.19 32.66 2020 720.1 0.17 39.77 2021 0.14 37.77? 2022? 0.072 37.92? Currency’s value is decreased to half from 2021 to 2022. This means GDP’s value would be half and Debt ratio would be twice. Then I searched Turkey’s interest ratio was 14.00% at Jan 20, 2022. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/1/20/turkeys-central-bank-hits-pause-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged In 2022, Turkey’s

  2021/6/29.  The RED FLAGs in Tokyo Stock Market I sold all my stocks in Tokyo Stock Market. There seems to be some red flags in Tokyo Stock Market. First of all, J-reit market’s average Net Asset Value(NAV) is high. Almost all J-reit stocks’ NAV are over 1. This means that J-reit stocks are more expensive than their real values. Secondly, J-reit market’s average yields is 3.3%, it’s near 3%. This is dangerous flag. Aging country, especially as Japan, has low interest rates, but there are risk premiums. Risk premium has to be higher than 3.5% in Japan. (This number is what I feel.) Interest rates in Japan is under 0%, and I think it is equal to 0%. So J-reit market’s average yields should be over 3.5%. Third red flag is existence of individual investors. They are end buyers, and they seem to bet their money in Tokyo Stock Market. I don’t know when this bull market ends, but I quit this game and take a rest in some months. Cash is king, and crash is near.

  2021/1/10.     The Option trade   I got ¥100,000($1,000) with option trade. I have done good trade, but I am worrying about the stock markets now. The stock market is booming now. It’s not bad at all.  But it seems to be dangerous. Everybody becomes greedy, so take care! I recommend that keeping high cash position and entering into stock market with the money which you can lose. When everyone becomes greedy, it’s time to stop dancing on stock market. I have bought Gold & Silver. They are not so high prices. And I will bet my money with option trade again in near future. This site provides how market is greedy or fear. https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ Now it’s 77 points greedy. There may be some space to raise stock prices. But I feel something is going strange. This is because nobody can stop money financing by central banks. I guess that stock prices will get higher till July in this year. But I don’t have solid confidence. This stock market’s booming will end in one d

2018/4/17. Stock market game Prayers , Players or Insiders , which am I? Prayers:Buy , hold & pray Players:Buy/Sell on probability and get constant earnings  Insiders:Know stocks from inside Warren Buffet may be Insiders , because he knows lots of company from inside position. So I cannot be like him. If we want to get earnings from market , we have to be players or insiders. Buy , hold & pray is effortless way , and the way sometimes go well.  I felt hopeless when I started stock market game at first , 12 years ago. At that time , I only have ¥50 , 000 , so that I cannot buy highly price stocks. Compared to that age , I have some hope for the market. Of course , I don ’ t have much money.  Bank of Japan still keeps financial easing. This is good news. I don ’ t know when they stop , but still keeps. There may be small space & hope for investment to Japan market.

2018/4/17. World Market: Pendulum! World market is in the fixed range. Bull and Bear are fighting with same power. In this range , there is no good/bad news ,   news follows the market , the market doesn ’ t follow news. If good news what I feel is released , that news doesn ’ t affect the market. The news would be only used as following reason for raising or falling.

Sakura(Cherry Blossoms) & Monetary Easing by Bank of Japan   Strong spring winds blow the Cherry Blossoms. I heard that Japanese old army at WW2 planted cherry blossoms for the reason. It is that flowers which are spreading gently was just like old Japan army, and they overlapped self as Cherry Blossoms.  Monetary Easing by bank of Japan is now proceeding, is this overlapped sakura? Sakura flowers bloom a lot in one moment, and strong winds blow them. This monetary easing reduces Japanese ¥’s value and this is last attack to Japanese economy by short-term-view-to-long-term-problem.  Strong winds will blow from China, maybe freedom of exchange currency.