Creating favorite opinions

  Win to lose or Lose to win I searched some data about Japan stock markets. I have thought that individual investors give their money and pro investors take them. It may be wrong. I found that every investors cannot avoid to lose their money, but pro investors may be good at limit their losses. To limit losses may result to lose to win.

  Typhoon person I saw the Mexico and Canada stock prices went down from May 9, 2025. If this fall is not the whim of the market, this is signal for Trade war. In my experience, typhoon person is there. Typhoon person tends to have an ally nearby, attack people who keep their distance, and if enough far, there are no damage. Mexico and Canada will be damaged stronger than other far countries. 

 Correlation between features and USD/Japanese Yen(JPY) I wrote Python code for searching about correlation between features and USD/JPY. Combined_Price = (Gold × 1 + Oil × 2.5) × DGS10 DGS10 means 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate. Correlation was 0.93975.

 correlation-features-USA(corr=0.9645) df["Combined_Price"] = (     df["Gold"] * 10                              # 安全資産、価値保存     + (df["Copper"] - df["Zinc"]) * 0.75         # 工業金属の需給差（精錬コスト的な差？）     - (df["Wheat"] + df["Corn"]) * 2.5           # 食料インフレ圧力（消費者・企業のコスト増）     + (df["Oil"] - df["Uranium"]) * 30           # 化石燃料 vs 原子力（エネルギーのパラダイム） ) I found correlation(corr=0.9645) between combined features and DJI. This is from FRED data, so that some delays are included. https://medium.com/@takapoko182/a-personal-attempt-to-reconstruct-djia-using-commodity-prices-2015-2025-638e4375919c

  The Chinification of America vs the Americanization of China Hummm… https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-deflects-blame-economy-contraction-says-be-patient-2025-04-30/ I thought about the Chinification of America vs the Americanization of China. Simply, the Americanization of China seems to be more exciting. Further, I thought about double-sided transaction. If America market is bear trend, China market will be bull trend, so that there may be chances in both markets. (I don’t have enough money to do it, and I am not good at trading.) [Additional news] Military parade on Trump's birthday could include more than 6,500 troops https://www.reuters.com/world/us/military-parade-trumps-birthday-could-include-more-than-6500-troops-2025-05-02/ [Further Additional] I searched with Python code. I may be wrong about the markets. Correlation between China market and USA market becomes stronger than I expected.

  Dissonance between President Trump and FRB I read this news. Trump readies order for steep tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, China https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-readies-order-steep-tariffs-goods-mexico-canada-china-2025-02-01/ I felt that there may be dissonance between President Trump and FRB. President Trump might think that FRB would cut interest rates, but FRB didn’t. I thought that President Trump wanted to order tariffs, and FRB would support it. Why does this dissonance happen? I think that there are difference between what President Trump watches and what FRB watches. President Trump may watch the future, but FRB watches past.

  Legal Online CASINO: USA share markets Background I was interested in this news. Tradeweb to extend trading hours the day after US election https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/tradeweb-extend-trading-hours-day-after-us-election-2024-10-31/ My thought Share markets has turned to be Legal Online CASINO. USA share markets’ rival will be real/online CASINO. How to invest good companies? Venture capital is the way, not to bet money on share markets. What will happen in share markets? Current share markets are not the field to invest good companies. They are the field to play “Old lady game”. Rich sells shares in high price and poor buy a small amount the shares. After stock markets crash, Rich buy the shares little by little in low price to collect them. This is the system, which is alike to a hamster wheel. One idea I have read the book “Just Keep Buying”. The book only told that Just Keep Buying the shares. I can write Python code and use GCP, so that t...

  China Share markets Background I am not good at investment. But hedge funds which sell China markets will be afraid of loss through the roof. Big short cover will happen… Exclusive: China to issue $284 billion of sovereign debt this year to help revive economy https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-issue-284-bln-sovereign-debt-this-year-help-revive-economy-sources-say-2024-09-26/ Conclusion Hedge funds might think Chinese economy would ends. China gov betrayed their expectations in good meaning for Chinese people. Additional thought In this situation, big medias will publish bad stories about China’s economy. This is because big medias’ friends and advertisers are/were in short position for China markets.

  2024/4/18.  Mismatch between China supply capacity and USA inflation I found one large mismatch between China supply capacity and USA inflation. USA inflation may be caused by house construction fee. Buying house is one of the most expensive things in our life. Recently, China real estate market is in trouble. Because there is large house supply capacity. Of course, I know China can’t export their house to USA. But how about building materials? China has large building material supply capacity and USA wants house to be cheaper. There seems to be mismatch between them. I don’t know who will be selected to next USA president. But Mr.Trump is good at real estates trading. So I hope that Mr.Trump or current US president Biden can solve this mismatch.

  2023/9/17.  Japanese listed companies I saw Mr.Warren Buffet has bought Japanese trading companies’ stocks. I thought it was good decision, but there may be misunderstanding between Japanese stocks and World stocks. In Japanese listed companies, the workers including CEOs in the companies, doesn’t think shareholders is more important than them. I made graphes. They think as core-shell structure or insider/outsider. And world stocks is below... So if Mr.Warren Buffet doesn’t know it, it may cause a lot of stress to him and Japan workers.

  2023/6/5.  Copper is more than Gold or Silver in Japan? 2 I researched about the relationship between copper and Nikkei 225. I wrote below codes. https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/Nikkei225vsCopper https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/Nikkei225vsCopper2 Nikkei 225 price seems to have relationship with copper power 3 price. Nikkei 225 = (Copper price ^3) * some times If you like this result, I will be happy. 2023/6/6. Additionally, Copper price has more relationship with Nikkei 225 than Copper price power 3. I was wrong. https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/Nikkei225vsCopper3/Nikkei225vsCopper3 2023/6/10. Additionally, I did cluster analysis to the result. This is interesting. https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/Nikkei225vsCopper4

  2023/5/27.   Copper is more than Gold or Silver in Japan? Recently, I searched about relationship between Nikkei225 and commodities. I found that copper’s price has higher relationship to Nikkei225 than Gold or Silver prices. From 2015-01-01 to 2023-05-26, relationships are  Platinum:0.171 Gold:0.736 Silver:0.745 Copper:0.787. Above is result of my codes. https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/CorrelationBTWGoldAndNikkei Honestly, I worried to open this result and codes. But I don’t have enough money to buy/sell stocks, so it is no need to worry...