Pretender to be tough easily shifts to be weak I know one pretender to be tough. The person shifted to be weak after he/she lost own bluff. I thought about the difference between real confidence and bluff. Real confidence stands by our sides, but bluff is put on own faces. Real confidence makes us stronger. Bluff can make us both of stronger and weaker. In other words, real confidence is asset, but bluff is risk. The result of bluff will be better or worse than without bluff. (I don’t like such risk, so that I try not to use bluff.) I thought about below matrix. Result With Real confidence Without Real confidence With Bluff Middle Risk and High Return High Risk and Middle Return Without Bluff Low Risk and Middle Return Middle Risk and Low Return I don’t know this matrix is true, but not so far from true. Then I thought about another things, “Are there perfect method?” If I have real confidence and don’t use bluff, there ar...
Japanese Government Bond(JGB) is Bubble
1.Definition
Bubble:
used to refer to a good or fortunate situation that is isolated from reality or unlikely to last.
(From google search ”bubble definition”)
2.Situation
This is JGB’s 10 years yield chart.
This graph is JAPAN general government net debt in percent of GDP.
Debt is increasing, but yield is decreasing. This situation include some contradictions.
3. Opinion about ending
JGB Bubble may be next big problem. And it will collapse in 2019-2023.
Japanese banks is suffering by low yields and they are surviving by selling past assets.
The influence of low yields has been taking rich people’s interest money.
Economic deflation was the help for low interest, because the deflation was the reason to serve money in bank.
And I read the book “五輪後の日本経済” by Sayuri Shirai who was member of Bank Of Japan.
She wrote about IMF that they know Japanese government can’t rebuild their finances.
IMF also told her that Japanese economy will survive till their debt will be 200% of GDP.
I estimate from the graph, the net debt in percent of GDP will reach 200% after 2019.
Before Tokyo olympic or after it, JGB problem will end. It is not so long time.
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