2021/6/29. The RED FLAGs in Tokyo Stock Market
I sold all my stocks in Tokyo Stock Market.
There seems to be some red flags in Tokyo Stock Market.
First of all, J-reit market’s average Net Asset Value(NAV) is high.
Almost all J-reit stocks’ NAV are over 1.
This means that J-reit stocks are more expensive than their real values.
Secondly, J-reit market’s average yields is 3.3%, it’s near 3%.
This is dangerous flag.
Aging country, especially as Japan, has low interest rates, but there are risk premiums.
Risk premium has to be higher than 3.5% in Japan. (This number is what I feel.)
Interest rates in Japan is under 0%, and I think it is equal to 0%.
So J-reit market’s average yields should be over 3.5%.
Third red flag is existence of individual investors.
They are end buyers, and they seem to bet their money in Tokyo Stock Market.
I don’t know when this bull market ends, but I quit this game and take a rest in some months.
Cash is king, and crash is near.
