The LDP’s Landslide Victory and the Possibility of an End to the Ukraine War (A Structural Analysis)
The LDP’s Landslide Victory and the Possibility of an End to the Ukraine War
(A Structural Analysis)
Premise
• Japan’s House of Representatives election does not directly determine the course of the Ukraine war.
• However, it can indirectly influence whether the war shifts into a termination phase.
1. LDP Landslide Victory = Fixation of Japan’s Political and Military Trajectory
• The LDP’s victory solidifies, over the medium to long term, policy directions such as:
• Increased defense spending
• Deeper military integration with the United States
• Greater flexibility in constitutional interpretation
• This means that Japan is increasingly perceived as
“a country that is not radical, but is steadily militarizing.”
2. Changes in the Strategic Environment from Russia’s Perspective
• From Russia’s point of view:
• West: attrition caused by the Ukraine war
• South: instability in the Middle East and surrounding regions
• East: a fixed and institutionalized threat consisting of Japan, the United States, and U.S. forces stationed in Japan
• As Japan’s policy direction becomes fixed,
the structure in which Russia can focus solely on the western front (Ukraine) becomes increasingly untenable.
3. Russia’s Rational Aversion to Two-Front or Three-Front Pressure
• Historically, Russia has tended to avoid prolonged wars of attrition on multiple fronts.
• The more tangible the risks on the eastern side (Japan and East Asia) become,
the stronger the incentive for Russia to:
• refrain from further escalation of the Ukraine war, and instead
• freeze or terminate it in a manageable and controlled form.
4. Not “Stopping” the War, but Making It Easier to Stop
• A landslide LDP victory:
• transforms Japan from an uncertain variable into a fixed strategic factor.
• As a result:
• The United States and Europe gain greater room for diplomatic maneuvering.
• Russia loses strategic flexibility.
• Consequently, the relative likelihood that the Ukraine war moves into a termination phase increases.
5. Conclusion
• A landslide LDP victory
= Japan becomes fixed as “a stationary but impossible-to-ignore actor.”
• As a result:
• Russia becomes less inclined to prolong the western front indefinitely, and
• the rational incentive to bring the war to an end increases.
• Therefore, Japan’s election outcome may indirectly contribute to creating the conditions for the end of the Ukraine war.