ASEAN’s Pawn Strategy in the US–China Rivalry
The Core of the Third Pole
In the great power rivalry between the United States (U) and China (C), a third pole (T), especially ASEAN, follows a unique strategy:
- Stay unpredictable: Do not reveal which side to support.
- Buy time: Use this uncertainty to secure growth opportunities.
In short, the strategy is “not to be read, while growing.”
Chess Metaphor
- ASEAN is like a single pawn on the board (not in a negative sense, but compared with the overwhelming of U and C).
- The pawn’s value lies in its potential to promote into a queen, but only in the endgame, after U and C have consumed much of their resources.
- Both U and C will try to capture or divide the pawn before it reaches promotion.
Therefore, ASEAN’s survival depends on staying unified and advancing steadily.
Mathematical Expression
Let the total power be:
Power(t)=U+C+T(t)
- U,C ≈ constants (low growth rate).
- T(t) = ASEAN’s dynamic function with high growth rate.
dtdT ≫dtdU ,dtdC
Thus, ASEAN’s importance grows over time, provided it survives long enough to reach “promotion.”
The Window Strategy
If U and C give support individually to ASEAN members, the result is division.
Instead, ASEAN should receive support through a single ASEAN window:
ASEAN strength=∑ti +(SU +SC )
This keeps the pawn unified, avoids capture, and still benefits from both sides.
Conclusion
ASEAN’s role in the US–China rivalry is not immediate dominance, but time-based growth.
The strategy is clear:
- Do not be read
- Survive as one pawn
- Promote in the endgame
For the world, helping ASEAN maintain this path may be the most stabilizing and hopeful choice.
Afterthought
I imagine a future where our planet embraces the Blue-Green Planet System (BGPS).
If ASEAN promotes into a queen without nuclear weapons, it will help keep our planet both Blue and Green.
Additional Thought
Another possible strategy is for ASEAN to adjust its position based on India’s moves.
If India leans closer to China and distances itself from the United States, ASEAN can move in the opposite direction—closer to the United States and away from China.
This complementary dynamic allows the third pole to maintain balance: India acts as an unpredictable knight, while ASEAN, as a steady pawn, advances on the other side.
Together, they reinforce the unpredictability of the third pole and prevent either U or C from fully dominating the strategic landscape.