East Asia Scenarios in the Event of a Taiwan Emergency
I considered several possible scenarios for East Asia if a Taiwan emergency were to occur.
To explain them, I use three lenses: Mathematics (Math), Chess Metaphors (Chess), and the English language (English).
Scenario A: Russia Directly Participates in the East Asia War
Math
Russia : Japan = North Korea : South Korea
or
Russia + North Korea = Japan + South Korea
Chess
In this scenario, Russia cannot fully concentrate on the East Asia front.
- If Russia acts like a Knight, it would strike South Korea, jumping over obstacles.
- If Russia acts like a Bishop, it would target Japan, attacking diagonally.
However, due to limited military resources, it seems unlikely that Russia can play the Bishop role.
English
Russia shifts part of its military forces to the Far East and engages directly.
Scenario B: Russia Supports North Korea in the East Asia War
Math
Russia + North Korea = South Korea + Japan
Chess
Here, Russia acts as a Rook, supporting North Korea from behind.
If North Korea suffers counterattacks, the Rook could advance directly into East Asia.
English
Russia strengthens North Korea through weapons, resources, and diplomatic backing, enabling Pyongyang to increase pressure on South Korea.
Scenario C: Russia Supports North Korea First, Then Joins Later After the Russia–Ukraine War Ends
Math
North Korea + Russia vs South Korea + Japan
→ Initially, North Korea vs South Korea, and later Russia vs Japan.
Chess
In this scenario, Russia deploys both the Rook and the Knight.
First, the Rook provides rear support; later, the Knight (and possibly the Rook) enters the battlefield more directly.
English
For the time being, Russia focuses on rear support. After the Russia–Ukraine war ends, it could expand its military presence in the Far East and join the East Asia conflict more directly.