Emotionics Market Analysis
This article introduces a hypothesis that applies Emotionics to behavioral patterns in financial markets.
In Emotionics, emotional behavior can be understood through two axes:
1. Verb Dimension: Feel vs Feign
2. State Dimension: Real vs Fake
Human “emotion × action” diverges into the following four patterns:
|
Positive Market Catalyst |
Real Emotion (genuine belief) |
Fake Emotion (internal disbelief but outward performance) |
|
Feel |
A: Believes the price will rise → buys |
B: Thinks the price won’t rise, but joins because others might push it up |
|
Feign |
C: Says the price won’t rise, but secretly buys |
D: Says the price will fall, but secretly buys (classic contrarian behavior) |
🟦 A: Feel × Real — Pure Reaction / Retail Investors
“Price will rise → buy”
🟧 B: Feel × Fake — Cooperative Participation / Semi-professional Traders
“Personally doubtful, but joins because others may drive the price up in the short term”
🟥 C: Feign × Real — Strategic Signaling / Professional & Institutional Players
“Believes the price will rise, but publicly claims it won’t → wants to accumulate quietly”
🟩 D: Feign × Fake — Flip Strategy / Ultra-professional Reflex Players
“Publicly claims the price won’t rise but actually buys → double-contrarian behavior reacting to ‘market lies’”
Core Insight: “The dominant quadrant reveals the phase of the market trend.”
• ✔ A dominant → Early bubble (straightforward optimism)
• ✔ B dominant → Rising volatility (mix of hope and doubt)
• ✔ C dominant → Consolidation phase (professionals accumulating)
• ✔ D dominant → Market top (deception, extraction, and psychological games)
2025/11/28 ADD
In the matrix, "Positive Market Catalyst"-->"Positive Market Outlook" or “Positive Market Expectation”