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Tokyo Real Estate Market: Signs of a Shift

Tokyo Real Estate Market: Signs of a Shift

As of October 17, 2025, I believe the Tokyo real estate market is gradually shifting from a bull market to a bear market.

  1. Interest Rate Pressure:

    The Bank of Japan is now being forced to raise interest rates after a long period of monetary easing. Higher borrowing costs are likely to cool property demand.

  2. Exit Behavior from Early Investors:

    Several YouTubers and influencers who made fortunes through Japanese real estate investments now appear to be searching for final buyers—a classic sign of a market top.

  3. Potential Restrictions on Foreign Buyers:

    Discussions about restricting foreign ownership of Tokyo properties are emerging, which could reduce overall demand and accelerate the cooling trend.


Taken together, these signals suggest that the Tokyo real estate market may be entering a transition phase, where optimism gives way to caution.

Additional Thought
Existing Japanese wealthy individuals may be trying to offload their second-tier real estate properties to other Japanese buyers, while at the same time stirring up patriotism to push for restrictions on foreign purchases of first-tier properties in Tokyo. In doing so, they might be aiming to reorganize their own portfolios in favor of higher-quality assets.
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