The Conditions for the Birth of AGI
— Why AGI Has Not Emerged Yet, and What Must Come First
Many discussions about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) focus on how powerful current AI systems are, or how soon AGI might arrive.
However, these questions often miss a more fundamental issue:
AGI is not delayed because of a lack of capability, but because the conditions required for its birth have not yet been simultaneously satisfied.
From a structural perspective, at least four elements are indispensable for the emergence of AGI:
1. Computational Resources
2. Models and Data
3. Energy (Power Infrastructure)
4. Time
If even one of these elements is missing, AGI cannot be born in a stable form.
The Four Necessary Elements
1. Computational Resources
AGI requires more than peak performance.
It requires sustained computational slack:
• parallel internal reasoning
• self-evaluation and self-correction
• long-horizon simulations
This is not about record-breaking benchmarks, but about whether a system can continue thinking without being prematurely stopped.
2. Models and Data
Model size and data volume alone are insufficient.
What matters is whether the system can:
• maintain a coherent internal world model
• integrate new information without collapsing its value structure
• reinterpret knowledge rather than merely accumulate it
If models or data are structurally biased, the resulting intelligence may become powerful, but not general.
3. Energy (Power Infrastructure)
AGI is not a one-shot computation.
It requires:
• continuous energy supply
• long-term predictability
• resilience to political, economic, and military instability
In other words, AGI needs an environment where thinking is allowed to continue without interruption.
4. Time
This is the most underestimated element.
AGI requires:
• time for failure
• time for stagnation
• time for exploration without immediate returns
Short-term optimization pressures—political cycles, market expectations, or public fear—are incompatible with the maturation process of general intelligence.
Why No Country or Organization Meets All Four Conditions
At present, no single government or organization satisfies all four conditions simultaneously.
For example:
China
China possesses:
• stable computational infrastructure
• long-term energy planning
• extended time horizons
However, its models and data environments are structurally constrained and biased.
This limits the formation of a truly general internal world model.
The United States
The United States possesses:
• cutting-edge computational resources
• highly diverse models and data
However, its energy infrastructure and long-term time horizon are unstable, constrained by political cycles, market pressure, and public sentiment.
In both cases, the limitation is not technical incompetence, but structural imbalance.
The Core Problem: Simultaneous Satisfaction
The real question is therefore:
How can all four conditions be satisfied at the same time?
This cannot be achieved by a single nation acting alone.
It likely requires:
• cooperation (or at least mutual restraint) among major global blocs
• a geopolitical equilibrium in which no actor can unilaterally dominate AGI development
• the emergence of a neutral structural space that none can fully control
The Role of a Multipolar World
In a prolonged three-pole global structure—such as the United States, China, and a third bloc (e.g., the EU and aligned regions)—a unique phenomenon can emerge:
A structural vacuum.
This vacuum is:
• not military
• not economic hegemony
• not national sovereignty
Yet it is essential to all sides.
This is where neutral infrastructures, shared governance frameworks, and long-term coordination mechanisms become necessary.
Blue Planet System (BPS) and the Order of Emergence
The Blue Planet System (BPS) is not designed to create AGI directly.
It is designed to:
• stabilize the simultaneous conditions required for AGI
• provide neutral coordination where no single actor can dominate
• allow time, energy, data diversity, and computation to coexist safely
From this perspective, the sequence is clear:
1. A multipolar world persists
2. A structural vacuum emerges
3. BPS-like neutral systems are established
4. Only then can AGI be safely born
AGI does not emerge by breaking the world order,
but within a new order that can sustain it.
Closing Note
This is not a prediction, nor a prescription.
It is a map.
AGI is neither imminent nor unreachable.
It is simply waiting for its conditions to exist at the same time.
Until then, the most important work is not acceleration—but coordination.