This article reflects my personal views and interpretations of current economic and technological trends.
It is not a statement of established facts, nor a prediction with certainty, but an attempt to think through possible structural outcomes.
The Day This Inflation Ends
Inflation feels permanent when you are living inside it.
Prices rise, wages lag, and every explanation sounds like an excuse for why things will “stay this way for a long time.”
But history is clear about one thing:
There is no inflation that lasts forever.
The question is not whether inflation ends —
it is how it ends, and what replaces it.
Inflation Does Not Die Quietly
Inflation rarely disappears because policymakers declare victory.
It ends when the system that supports it can no longer sustain itself.
High prices require three things to persist:
1. Continuous demand
2. Rising or at least stable incomes
3. A financial structure that absorbs higher costs
When one of these breaks, inflation does not slowly fade.
It changes phase.
A Possible Turning Window: 2026–2028
Based on current structural trends, there is a realistic window — not a prediction, but a possibility — that today’s inflationary environment could shift toward deflation sometime between late 2026 and 2028.
Why this period?
• Monetary tightening works with long delays
• Debt burdens compound silently
• Consumption weakens before prices visibly fall
By the time inflation feels defeated, demand is often already damaged.
This is how inflation historically ends — not with relief, but with exhaustion.
AI Changes the Direction of Labor Costs
One crucial difference between this cycle and past ones is AI-driven technological acceleration.
AI does not merely increase productivity.
It compresses labor costs.
• White-collar tasks become scalable
• Middle-layer roles lose pricing power
• Wage growth stalls without visible layoffs
This creates a form of labor cost deflation — quiet, structural, and difficult to reverse.
In such an environment, wages do not collapse.
They simply stop rising.
And that is enough.
At the Same Time, AI Is Not Cheap
Here lies the paradox.
While human labor becomes cheaper, AI itself does not.
AI requires:
• Industrial metals such as silver and copper
• Semiconductors and computing hardware
• Massive data centers
• Electricity, cooling, and physical infrastructure
These are not abstract costs.
They are constrained by physics, resources, and energy systems.
As AI adoption accelerates, these costs face persistent inflationary pressure.
A Split Economy: Labor Deflation vs. AI Inflation
This leads to a structurally unusual outcome:
|
Category |
Pressure |
|
Human labor |
Deflationary |
|
AI-related materials |
Inflationary |
|
Electricity & infrastructure |
Inflationary |
|
Household purchasing power |
Compressed |
This is not a temporary imbalance.
It is a new equilibrium shaped by technology and physical limits.
What Happens When Inflation Finally Ends
When today’s inflation ends, it will likely not be replaced by “normal growth.”
Instead, we may enter a world where:
• Prices of goods tied to human labor stagnate or fall
• Costs tied to computation, energy, and materials remain elevated
• Monetary policy loses precision
• Deflation appears uneven, confusing, and politically uncomfortable
This is not the deflation of collapse.
It is the deflation of technological re-pricing.
Conclusion: Inflation Ends, Structure Remains
The most dangerous belief is that inflation is permanent.
The second most dangerous belief is that its end will restore the old balance.
Inflation will end.
But the world it leaves behind will not look familiar.
Understanding which costs deflate and which costs inflate matters far more than arguing about headline numbers.
The day this inflation ends will not feel like relief.
It will feel like a reconfiguration of reality.
And by the time it is obvious,
the transition will already be complete.